Thirty parties,
five federations.

Every party of 2026 · by Chamber seats won

Parties

Chamber 2026: deputies elected on 4 Oct 2026 (take their seats 1 Feb 2027). Bench now: the Câmara's party benches in the 57th Legislature today, after party switches since 2022; the difference is the change the new Chamber brings. Votes: nominal and party-label votes for the Chamber. Senate 2027: the 54 elected in 2026 by the party they ran for and the 27 elected in 2022 by their party today. FEFC: the 2026 electoral fund (Fundo Especial de Financiamento de Campanha), R$ 5,0 bi split by the TSE. Barrier: whether the party, or its federation, passed the 2026 clause. Party families are a conventional approximation.

Cláusula de desempenho · Constitution art. 17 §3 · EC 97/2017 art. 3

11 passed,
11 did not.

To receive the Fundo Partidário and free radio and TV time from 2027, a party (or federation, counted as one) needed in 2026 at least 2,5% of valid Chamber votes, spread over at least 9 units with 1,5% in each, or at least 13 deputies elected in 9 units. Deputies of parties that fail keep their seats and may move to a party that passed without losing them (art. 17 §5).

Registered polls · President · 725 scenarios from 178 TSE registrations

Every poll
has a number.

A poll may be published in Brazil only after it is registered with the electoral courts, at least five days ahead, and every publication must carry its registration number (Lei 9.504/1997 art. 33). There is no blackout before the vote: the STF struck down the 15-day ban in 2006. Only surveys carried out on polling day wait, until 17h Brasília.

At this request (6 Nov 2026) no rule holds any poll back: all 725 are shown.

First round · stimulated vote, all respondents

Second round · Lula × Flávio Bolsonaro

Registration number, pollster, fieldwork dates and sample: the TSE's PesqEle registrations (open data, CC BY 4.0). Shares: the pollsters' releases as compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), a secondary source; each row's link goes to the release or news report. 35 published rows that matched no TSE registration were dropped.

Polls vs result · valid votes

The polls' leader
came second, twice.

Poll shares rescaled to valid votes (the candidates named, without undecided, blank and null) to compare with the result; margin error = poll lead of the winner of the round minus the actual lead, so negative means the poll gave the round's top candidate less of a lead than the result. Averages and errors are computed by this site.

Promoting an unlicensed fixed-odds betting operator is an administrative offence; the Ministry of Finance's Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) ordered Polymarket and 26 other prediction-market sites blocked (Anatel, from 24 April 2026), and the TSE treats betting on election results as an electoral offence (Res.-TSE 23.735/2024 as amended in 2024). The site shows prices with attribution but no link.