✶ 14 registered parties · polls to October 31, 2026
Six parties,
two in the race.
Fourteen parties are registered with Elections Canada; five hold seats in the House of Commons (Chambre des communes). In 2025 the Liberals and Conservatives together took 85% of the vote, the largest two-party share since 1958. Here is every national poll published since.
Average of the latest poll from each of 4 pollsters, 21 days to October 31, 2026
Where it
stands.
- Liberal 46.6% +2.8 pts
- Conservative 31.0% −10.3 pts
- NDP 11.0% +4.7 pts
- Bloc 6.3% +0.1 pts
- Green 2.7% +1.5 pts
- People's 1.6% +0.9 pts
Liberal lead over the Conservatives: +15.6 points. The tick on each bar is the party's 2025 result; the change is in percentage points since then.
October 31, 2026: Liberal 46.6% · Conservative 31.0% · NDP 11.0% · Bloc 6.3% · Green 2.7% · People's 1.6%
247 polls · 14 pollsters
Every
poll.
The Canada Elections Act (s.326) requires whoever first publishes a poll during an election period to give the sponsor, the pollster, the dates, the population, the number of people contacted, the margin of error and, in print or online, the exact question wording. Our source lists pollster, dates, sample, mode and margin of error; the sponsor and the questions are in each pollster's own report. A margin of error is not given for opt-in online panels, which are not probability samples.
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Mode | MoE | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Bloc | Green | People's | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 45% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,014 | telephone | ±3.1 | 45% | 29% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | — |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 44% | 31% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,019 | telephone | ±3.1 | 47% | 28% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,500 | online | ±2.5 | 48% | 32% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 45% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,016 | telephone | ±3.1 | 51% | 28% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Abacus Data | 3,197 | online | ±1.7 | 46% | 34% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Léger | 1,525 | online | ±2.5 | 48% | 33% | 8% | 6% | 3% | — | 2% |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,263 | IVR | ±2.8 | 45% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,034 | telephone | ±3.1 | 49% | 30% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,020 | telephone | ±3.1 | 49% | 28% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | — |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Ekos | 2,020 | telephone | ±1.7 | 47% | 26% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,022 | telephone | ±3.1 | 50% | 28% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Abacus Data | 2,774 | online | ±1.9 | 46% | 34% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 45% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,026 | telephone | ±3.1 | 48% | 31% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | — |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 44% | 32% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,014 | telephone | ±3.1 | 48% | 31% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,479 | online | ±2.5 | 47% | 33% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Angus Reid | 1,811 | online | ±2.0 | 46% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 2% | — | 2% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Léger | 1,538 | online | ±2.5 | 49% | 33% | 6% | 7% | 3% | — | 2% |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 45% | 31% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,020 | telephone | ±3.1 | 47% | 31% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 2% | — |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 46% | 29% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,017 | telephone | ±3.1 | 44% | 33% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Ipsos | 1,001 | online | ±3.8 | 44% | 33% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Abacus Data | 2,022 | online | ±2.2 | 45% | 35% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 43% | 32% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,022 | telephone | ±3.1 | 44% | 30% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 43% | 32% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,031 | telephone | ±3.1 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,499 | online | ±2.5 | 42% | 35% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 44% | 31% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Research Co. | 1,001 | online | ±3.1 | 47% | 27% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,038 | telephone | ±3.1 | 46% | 29% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ekos | 3,195 | telephone | ±1.7 | 45% | 27% | 17% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Léger | 1,514 | online | ±2.5 | 46% | 34% | 8% | 6% | 4% | — | 2% |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 43% | 34% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,037 | telephone | ±3.1 | 47% | 28% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,910 | online | ±2.2 | 44% | 38% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Angus Reid | 1,769 | online | ±2.3 | 40% | 36% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 44% | 35% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,034 | telephone | ±3.1 | 45% | 30% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 1% | — |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 43% | 35% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,022 | telephone | ±3.1 | 43% | 31% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Abacus Data | 4,205 | online | ±1.5 | 43% | 37% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 41% | 35% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,018 | telephone | ±3.1 | 43% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,458 | IVR | ±2.5 | 43% | 34% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,017 | telephone | ±3.1 | 41% | 32% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Abacus Data | 2,366 | online | ±2.0 | 44% | 36% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 42% | 34% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,017 | telephone | ±3.1 | 44% | 30% | 12% | 7% | 5% | 2% | — |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Léger | 1,528 | online | ±2.5 | 48% | 34% | 6% | 6% | 4% | — | 2% |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 43% | 32% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,024 | telephone | ±3.1 | 44% | 32% | 11% | 7% | 5% | 2% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Abacus Data | 3,080 | online | ±1.8 | 45% | 37% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 1,349 | IVR | ±2.7 | 43% | 33% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 41% | 32% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,021 | telephone | ±3.1 | 43% | 31% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 2% | — |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Angus Reid | 4,237 | online | ±2.0 | 41% | 36% | 12% | 7% | 2% | — | 1% |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 40% | 32% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,023 | telephone | ±3.1 | 42% | 29% | 13% | 7% | 6% | 2% | — |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,910 | online | ±2.2 | 44% | 36% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Léger | 1,532 | online | ±2.5 | 50% | 34% | 6% | 6% | 2% | — | 1% |
| May 31, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 41% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| May 29, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,028 | telephone | ±3.1 | 40% | 33% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 2% | — |
| May 24, 2026 | Pallas Data | 1,295 | IVR | ±2.7 | 45% | 32% | 11% | 7% | 3% | — | 2% |
| May 23, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 43% | 31% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| May 22, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,026 | telephone | ±3.1 | 41% | 33% | 13% | 6% | 5% | 2% | — |
| May 20, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,920 | online | ±2.2 | 47% | 35% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 1% | — |
| May 16, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 43% | 34% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| May 15, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,035 | telephone | ±3.1 | 42% | 33% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 2% | — |
| May 9, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | IVR | ±2.5 | 44% | 33% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| May 8, 2026 | Research Co. | 1,003 | online | ±3.1 | 46% | 31% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| May 8, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,036 | telephone | ±3.1 | 46% | 33% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 2% | — |
| May 5, 2026 | Abacus Data | 2,478 | online | ±2.0 | 46% | 36% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| May 2, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 45% | 33% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| May 1, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,027 | telephone | ±3.1 | 45% | 32% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | — |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Léger | 1,521 | online | ±2.5 | 48% | 37% | 6% | 6% | 2% | — | 1% |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 45% | 34% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,024 | telephone | ±3.1 | 45% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Ekos | 1,916 | IVR | ±2.2 | 45% | 31% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Abacus Data | 2,000 | online | ±2.2 | 45% | 36% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Angus Reid | 2,013 | online | ±2.0 | 42% | 35% | 12% | 7% | 2% | — | 1% |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 45% | 33% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,022 | telephone | ±3.1 | 46% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 43% | 33% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,027 | telephone | ±3.1 | 45% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,680 | online | ±2.4 | 44% | 38% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Spark Insights | 4,026 | online | — | 46% | 32% | 9% | 6% | — | — | 8% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Ipsos | 1,000 | online | ±3.8 | 45% | 33% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 44% | 33% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,025 | telephone | ±3.1 | 46% | 31% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Léger | 1,618 | online | ±2.4 | 48% | 34% | 6% | 7% | 3% | — | 1% |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 45% | 33% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,029 | telephone | ±3.1 | 47% | 32% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Spark Insights | 4,000 | online | — | 46% | 30% | 11% | 5% | — | — | 8% |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,515 | online | ±2.5 | 44% | 37% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 46% | 32% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,024 | telephone | ±3.1 | 46% | 33% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Angus Reid | 4,005 | online | ±1.5 | 44% | 36% | 9% | 7% | 2% | — | 1% |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Ekos | 1,047 | online | ±3.0 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 0% |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 45% | 31% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,015 | telephone | ±3.1 | 48% | 31% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,931 | online | ±2.2 | 46% | 35% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 44% | 30% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,023 | telephone | ±3.1 | 46% | 33% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 1% | — |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Spark Insights | 3,055 | online | — | 46% | 31% | 10% | 5% | — | — | 8% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Léger | 1,627 | online | ±2.4 | 49% | 35% | 5% | 5% | 3% | — | 2% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 1,276 | IVR | ±2.7 | 46% | 36% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 43% | 33% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,015 | telephone | ±3.1 | 44% | 33% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 1% | — |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Ipsos | 1,001 | online | ±3.8 | 44% | 36% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Pollara | 2,410 | online | ±2.0 | 47% | 34% | 9% | 7% | — | — | 3% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Angus Reid | 1,650 | online | ±2.0 | 45% | 32% | 10% | 7% | 4% | — | 2% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,500 | online | ±2.5 | 44% | 38% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 45% | 33% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,021 | telephone | ±3.1 | 41% | 34% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 1% | — |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Innovative Research | 1,838 | online | — | 44% | 37% | 8% | 6% | 3% | — | 3% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 43% | 34% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,018 | telephone | ±3.1 | 38% | 37% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 1% | — |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,915 | online | ±2.0 | 44% | 37% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 42% | 35% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,049 | telephone | ±3.0 | 39% | 35% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | — |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Research Co. | 1,001 | online | ±3.1 | 45% | 32% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 1,276 | IVR | ±2.7 | 51% | 36% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Innovative Research | 1,666 | online | — | 40% | 38% | 10% | 7% | 3% | — | 2% |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 43% | 35% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,055 | telephone | ±3.0 | 39% | 35% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | — |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Ekos | 1,453 | online | ±2.6 | 44% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Abacus Data | 2,498 | online | ±2.0 | 43% | 39% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Angus Reid | 1,420 | online | ±2.6 | 41% | 38% | 10% | 7% | 2% | — | 2% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Léger | 1,611 | online | ±2.4 | 47% | 38% | 5% | 6% | 2% | — | 1% |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 42% | 34% | 10% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,053 | telephone | ±3.0 | 39% | 35% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 40% | 35% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,084 | telephone | ±3.0 | 39% | 35% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | — |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Abacus Data | 2,008 | online | ±2.2 | 41% | 39% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Abacus Data | 1,850 | online | ±2.3 | 40% | 40% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Pallas Data | 1,120 | IVR | ±2.9 | 40% | 37% | 11% | 7% | 3% | — | 2% |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 39% | 36% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,054 | telephone | ±3.0 | 39% | 36% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 38% | 37% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Nanos Research | 1,059 | telephone | ±3.0 | 38% | 36% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 39% | 37% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,054 | telephone | ±3.0 | 38% | 35% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 38% | 38% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,059 | telephone | ±3.0 | 36% | 36% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Ipsos | 1,502 | online | ±3.1 | 40% | 37% | 9% | 9% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,074 | IVR | ±3.0 | 41% | 38% | 8% | 8% | 4% | — | 2% |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Innovative Research | 2,159 | online | — | 39% | 39% | 10% | 7% | 4% | — | 2% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,084 | telephone | ±3.0 | 39% | 36% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 1,098 | IVR | ±3.0 | 41% | 42% | 6% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,500 | online | ±2.5 | 41% | 41% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,042 | telephone | ±3.0 | 39% | 38% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 2% | — |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Angus Reid | 4,025 | online | ±1.5 | 40% | 37% | 10% | 9% | 3% | — | — |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,802 | online | ±2.3 | 41% | 41% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Innovative Research | 1,846 | online | — | 39% | 38% | 9% | 8% | 4% | — | 2% |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 41% | 36% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Léger | 1,579 | online | ±2.5 | 43% | 36% | 8% | 9% | 4% | — | 1% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,084 | telephone | ±3.0 | 42% | 38% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Abacus Data | 2,421 | online | ±2.0 | 41% | 40% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,053 | telephone | ±3.0 | 42% | 37% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kolosowski Strategies | 890 | online | ±3.2 | 44% | 44% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,060 | telephone | ±3.0 | 40% | 38% | 10% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Ekos | 1,191 | IVR | ±2.8 | 44% | 33% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 44% | 36% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 1,084 | IVR | ±3.0 | 44% | 40% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,122 | telephone | ±2.9 | 40% | 37% | 11% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Angus Reid | 2,038 | online | ±1.5 | 40% | 38% | 9% | 8% | 3% | — | — |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,916 | online | ±2.2 | 40% | 41% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 42% | 38% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Ekos | 1,199 | IVR | ±2.8 | 43% | 36% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Léger | 1,585 | online | ±2.5 | 43% | 38% | 7% | 7% | 4% | — | 1% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Nanos Research | 924 | telephone | ±3.0 | 39% | 37% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Abacus Data | 2,922 | online | ±1.8 | 40% | 42% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Ekos | 1,199 | online | ±2.8 | 44% | 32% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,060 | telephone | ±3.0 | 39% | 37% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,021 | telephone | ±3.1 | 39% | 37% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,206 | online | ±2.8 | 41% | 37% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Abacus Data | 4,501 | online | ±1.5 | 40% | 41% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,002 | telephone | ±3.1 | 39% | 37% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Léger | 1,562 | online | ±2.5 | 44% | 38% | 6% | 7% | 3% | — | 2% |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,027 | telephone | ±3.1 | 39% | 38% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,504 | online | ±2.5 | 40% | 41% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,030 | telephone | ±3.1 | 41% | 37% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Angus Reid | 1,570 | online | ±2.0 | 38% | 41% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 43% | 37% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,056 | telephone | ±3.0 | 41% | 36% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Abacus Data | 2,230 | online | ±2.1 | 40% | 40% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Ekos | 1,614 | online | ±2.4 | 42% | 34% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,049 | telephone | ±3.0 | 42% | 35% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Research Co. | 1,003 | telephone | ±3.1 | 43% | 38% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Ipsos | 1,001 | online | ±3.8 | 43% | 39% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 0% |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Léger | 1,592 | online | ±2.5 | 47% | 38% | 6% | 6% | 2% | — | 1% |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,002 | telephone | ±3.1 | 43% | 33% | 13% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Sep 4, 2025 | Angus Reid | 3,656 | online | ±1.5 | 38% | 40% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,500 | online | ±2.5 | 43% | 40% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 1,008 | IVR | ±3.1 | 42% | 40% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,009 | telephone | ±3.1 | 43% | 32% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 44% | 35% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,045 | telephone | ±3.0 | 44% | 34% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,915 | online | ±2.2 | 39% | 41% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,050 | telephone | ±3.0 | 44% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | IVR | ±3.1 | 44% | 35% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,094 | telephone | ±3.0 | 45% | 32% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,686 | online | ±2.4 | 43% | 40% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Aug 4, 2025 | Léger | 1,617 | online | ±2.4 | 46% | 36% | 6% | 7% | 3% | — | 1% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,096 | telephone | ±3.0 | 44% | 33% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,301 | IVR | ±2.7 | 43% | 38% | 8% | 6% | 2% | — | 3% |
| Jul 28, 2025 | Innovative Research | 3,732 | online | — | 41% | 39% | 9% | 7% | 4% | — | 2% |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,027 | telephone | ±3.1 | 44% | 34% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | — | IVR | — | 43% | 36% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,026 | telephone | ±3.1 | 44% | 34% | 10% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,915 | online | ±2.2 | 43% | 40% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Ekos | 1,817 | online | ±2.3 | 43% | 31% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 1% |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,047 | telephone | ±3.0 | 45% | 34% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Léger | 1,546 | online | ±2.5 | 48% | 35% | 7% | 6% | 3% | — | 1% |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,056 | telephone | ±3.0 | 45% | 33% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | — | IVR | — | 46% | 35% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,500 | online | ±2.5 | 41% | 40% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Research Co. | 1,001 | online | ±3.1 | 47% | 37% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Innovative Research | 4,029 | online | — | 43% | 38% | 8% | 6% | 3% | — | 2% |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,076 | telephone | ±3.0 | 45% | 31% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Jun 26, 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 1,168 | IVR | ±2.9 | 47% | 38% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,090 | telephone | ±3.0 | 45% | 31% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | — | IVR | — | 42% | 38% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Jun 19, 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,500 | online | ±1.9 | 42% | 39% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,080 | telephone | ±3.0 | 44% | 32% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,079 | telephone | ±3.0 | 43% | 33% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | — | IVR | — | 42% | 39% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Abacus Data | 2,585 | online | ±1.9 | 42% | 39% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Ekos | 1,529 | online | ±2.5 | 44% | 32% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| May 30, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,079 | telephone | ±3.0 | 42% | 36% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| May 30, 2025 | Spark Insights | 3,450 | online | — | 41% | 40% | 8% | 7% | — | — | 5% |
| May 23, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,127 | telephone | ±3.0 | 40% | 39% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| May 23, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | — | IVR | — | 44% | 39% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| May 22, 2025 | Innovative Research | 2,517 | online | — | 42% | 39% | 8% | 6% | 3% | — | 2% |
| May 21, 2025 | Abacus Data | 2,273 | online | ±2.1 | 41% | 40% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| May 16, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,127 | telephone | ±2.9 | 41% | 40% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| May 9, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,259 | telephone | ±2.8 | 42% | 41% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| May 9, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | — | IVR | — | 45% | 40% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| May 2, 2025 | Nanos Research | 1,297 | telephone | ±2.7 | 42% | 39% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Pollster | Polls | Usual mode | Latest fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | 79 | telephone | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Liaison Strategies | 58 | IVR | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Abacus Data | 38 | online | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Léger | 15 | online | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Ekos | 11 | online | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Angus Reid | 11 | online | Sep 7, 2026 |
| Mainstreet Research | 7 | IVR | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Innovative Research | 7 | online | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Ipsos | 5 | online | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Research Co. | 5 | online | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Pallas Data | 5 | IVR | May 24, 2026 |
| Spark Insights | 4 | online | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Pollara | 1 | online | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Kolosowski Strategies | 1 | online | Nov 18, 2025 |
Secondary source: polls compiled by Wikipedia's “Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election” (CC BY-SA 4.0), not by the pollsters or Elections Canada. Shares as published, rounded; parties a poll does not list are left out of its average, not counted as zero.
In the House · April 28, 2025 and today
The parties
with seats.
- Liberal, centre to centre-left Liberal Party of Canada Parti libéral du Canada
- Leader
- Mark Carney
- Founded
- 1867 †
- 2025 vote
- 43.8%
2025 169 Today 173The party that has governed Canada longest. Carney won the leadership in March 2025, called the election days later and turned a deficit in the polls into a fourth Liberal term in a row.
- Conservative, centre-right Conservative Party of Canada Parti conservateur du Canada
- Leader
- Pierre Poilievre
- Founded
- December 7, 2003
- 2025 vote
- 41.3%
2025 144 Today 137Formed by the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. Its best vote share since 1988 in 2025, yet Poilievre lost his own seat of Carleton; he returned at a by-election in Battle River—Crowfoot and kept the leadership with 87.4% at the January 2026 review.
- Quebec sovereigntist, social democratic Bloc Québécois Bloc Québécois
- Leader
- Yves-François Blanchet
- Founded
- June 15, 1991 †
- 2025 vote
- 6.3%
2025 22 Today 21Runs candidates only in Quebec's 78 ridings and seeks Quebec independence. Third in the House again in 2025 on 27.7% of the Quebec vote.
- Social democratic, centre-left New Democratic Party Nouveau Parti démocratique
- Leader
- Avi Lewis
- Founded
- August 3, 1961 †
- 2025 vote
- 6.3%
2025 7 Today 5Founded by the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation and the Canadian Labour Congress. Fell to 7 seats in 2025, below the 12 needed for recognised-party status in the House; Avi Lewis won the leadership on 29 March 2026.
- Green Green Party of Canada Parti vert du Canada
- Leader
- Elizabeth May
- Founded
- 1983 †
- 2025 vote
- 1.2%
2025 1 Today 1Environmentalist; one MP, its leader Elizabeth May (Saanich—Gulf Islands).
- Right-wing populist People's Party of Canada Parti populaire du Canada
- Leader
- Maxime Bernier
- Founded
- September 14, 2018 †
- 2025 vote
- 0.7%
2025 0 Today 0Founded by Bernier after he left the Conservatives. It has never won a seat at an election; 0.7% of the vote in 2025.
Today: Liberal 173, Conservative 137, Bloc 21, NDP 5, Green 1, 6 vacant, of 343; 172 is a majority. The Liberal count includes the Speaker. The Liberals reached a majority on April 13, 2026, after floor crossings and by-election wins. Every change since the election →
† Founding date from a secondary source (Wikipedia). Party colours are the parties' own where published (the Liberal red, from liberal.ca); the others are the colours commonly used in Canadian election graphics.
Registered, no seats
The other
eight.
Registration lets a party issue tax receipts and put its name on the ballot; it needs 250 members and at least one candidate at each general election. These eight are registered today; the Libertarian Party was deregistered on March 31, 2026.
| Party | Candidates 2025 | Votes 2025 | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Animal Protection Party of Canada Le Parti pour la Protection des Animaux du Canada | 7 | 1,301 | 0.01% |
| Canadian Future Party Parti Avenir Canadien | 19 | 3,123 | 0.02% |
| Centrist Party of Canada Parti Centriste du Canada | 19 | 3,314 | 0.02% |
| Christian Heritage Party of Canada Parti de l'Héritage Chrétien du Canada | 32 | 10,065 | 0.05% |
| Communist Party of Canada Parti communiste du Canada | 24 | 4,685 | 0.02% |
| Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada Parti Marxiste-Léniniste du Canada | 35 | 4,996 | 0.03% |
| Parti Rhinocéros Party Parti Rhinocéros Party | 29 | 7,063 | 0.04% |
| Reforge (in 2025: United Party of Canada) Reforge (en 2025 : Parti Uni du Canada) | 16 | 6,061 | 0.03% |
Party families
How the parties
line up.
Brokerage parties
Liberals and Conservatives are big-tent parties that try to win everywhere, from Newfoundland to Vancouver Island. Under one name or another, they have formed every federal government since 1867.
The left
The NDP, heir to the prairie socialism of the CCF, has governed several provinces but never Ottawa; it was the Official Opposition once, in 2011. Its vote fell to the Liberals in 2025.
Quebec
The Bloc sits only for Quebec ridings. Formed in 1991 after the Meech Lake Accord failed, it was the Official Opposition after the 1993 election and has been third or fourth since.
The rest
Greens, the People's Party and smaller registered parties rarely win a riding under first-past-the-post: a party needs its votes concentrated, as the Bloc's are, not spread thinly. See the seat lab →
Prediction-market prices are traders' bets, not polls. They are shown for information with no link to the market: Polymarket's terms exclude residents of Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta, and Canadian law restricts promoting such contracts. They are frozen with the polls on a polling day.